What's driving the gold market right now
Commentary so far in Q1 earnings has been solid but it's very early. Today the CFO at Bank of America said the economy was "solid" even though growth has slowed.
What the gold market is trying to figure out is whether central banks are going to have to ease further. That's slowly shifting towards 'no'. The chance of a Fed cut this year is down to 38% from as much as 76% in late March. Not coincidentally, gold was at $1326 at the time.
In short, gold is basically a trade on Fed easing and a trade on bad news coming.
Right now, the news isn't exactly glowing but it's not getting worse. That could change in a heartbeat but with the breakout of AUD/JPY to the upside, I think gold is vulnerable and a break of the January low will be ugly.
