Goldman Sachs yuan forecasts (cite escalating of China - US trade tensions):

  • 3 months out is 7.2
  • 6 months 7.2
  • 12 month 7.1
  • risk of further deprecation as China is reluctant to ease domestic policy further and stimulate economy

GS say there's a high probability US will enact the scheduled increases in tariffs on September and October 1st.

  • US FX intervention isn't the base case but its option might gain more attention as trade tensions escalate

Bank of America Merrill Lynch (say a lower yuan is to assist in offsetting tariffs)

  • 7.5 by end 2019 (from 7.3)
  • risk of move to 7.66 if yuan depreciation is favoured policy tool
  • China's hike of tariffs on US goods removes some of the pressure for yuan depreciation