Goldman Sachs have run their GSDEER model over the AUD (like you’d run a truck over something) and concluded that AUD/USD will fall to at least 0.80, and most likely to 0.74 in 2016.
GSDEER is Goldman Sachs Dynamic Equilibrium Exchange Rate, an econometric model.
eFX is carrying the story, with the great headline :
Goldman: AUD Is Doomed; To Fall To 0.80 On Pure Macro Fundamentals
I love a bit of doom in a headline
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ADDED: I posted this in the comments, just reproducing it here as there has been a good bit of interest in this post:
There’s a couple of things to keep in mind about this sort of item. We don’t know when this report was issued by Goldman’s to their clients. It may have been a few days ago and any announcement effect sending AUD down could run into buyers. Also, this is a long-term model, so its a longer-term view – if you are going to trade this view you’d want to be doing so with a longer-term perspective and stop loss level etc. Also, its a Dynamic model – so its going to change as the inputs change (whatever those inputs Goldman are using, they wont be mysterious but we don’t know all of them – though the 2-year swap rate differential between the two countries is central to the the model).
Having said all this, Goldman’s views are influential so its going to have some impact. AUD is a sell on rallies IMO.
