From Goldman Sachs on the continuing fall in oil prices (bolding is mine):
- Before the November OPEC meeting, we estimated that lower gasoline prices would be equivalent to a roughly $75bn tax cut for US households
- With oil prices continuing to drop sharply, the size of the tax cut now looks likely to be $100 – $125bn
- (resulting) higher consumer spending should boost real GDP by four- to five-tenths of a percentage point over the coming year, although lower US energy production will partly offset this benefit
- Within consumer spending, we would expect to see the largest positive effect on auto sales and (real) gasoline sales, with smaller proportional effects in other areas of spending
- History suggests that higher gasoline consumption should show up quickly, while the boost to other categories of spending may take a bit longer to materialize
(ps. I will keep ForexLive readers informed of when I buy a big, ugly V8 … that should be the signal to buy oil right there)