Goldman Sachs today revised down its EUR/USD forecast to 1.29, 1.25 and 1.20 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 1.35, 1.34 and 1.30 previously). GS also revised its longer-term forecasts lower, bringing the end-2015 number down to 1.15 (from 1.27), that for end-2016 to 1.05 (from 1.23) and that for end-2017 to 1.00 (from 1.20).
GS switched from forecasting Euro strength to weakness in April, when we revised our 12-month forecast from 1.40 to 1.30, and the decline since then has been faster than we anticipated. GS latest forecast change aims to signal that the current move lower in EUR/USD has staying power and, in our view, is the beginning of a trend.
“This forecast change is very much a restatement of our bullish Dollar view, which we laid out in the April FX Analyst. We think the USD still has room to catch up with the 2-year rate differential, which is currently the most Dollar-supportive since mid-2009 (Exhibit 1). In addition, changes to the Fed’s forward guidance in coming months have the potential to move the rate differential further in support of the Dollar (Exhibit 2), especially if US data continue their cyclical outperformance versus the rest of the G10,” GS says as a rationle behind this revision.
“We also believe that the dynamics of the Euro have fundamentally changed… As far as ECB policy goes, we think there is – counter to market consensus – plenty of room for President Draghi to ‘talk’ the currency lower, which he notably started to do in the August press conference when he said that “fundamentals for a weaker exchange rate are today much better than they were two or three months ago”. Reinforcing his comment, we estimate that the fair value for EUR/$ is around 1.19. Therefore, even with the depreciation of the Euro in recent months, it is still expensive,” GS adds.