GS sees Brent high next year, market rebalancing on a vaccine-led demand rebound and only a modest non-OPEC supply response.
- However, market faces declining short-term demand in Europe due to the spread of virus lockdowns ... "winter wave" will cause a 3m b/d hit to global oil demand, which will only be partially offset by heating and restocking demand
- conflicting signals likely to keep prices volatile in coming weeks
- will further complicate OPEC+'s decision to delay or implement its scheduled 1.9m b/d January production increase
- Goldman says its base case is a 3-month delay
- If the cuts not extended oil to drop $5/bbl from current levels