Goldman Sachs on oil, OPEC, shale: Could see record non-OPEC production growth in 2018

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

A research note from Goldman Sachs on Tuesday (in brief and bolding is mine) 

  • 2017-19 is likely to see the largest increase in mega projects' production in history, as the record 2011-13 capex commitment yields fruit
  • OPEC's decision in November 2016 to cut production was rational, in our view, and fit into its role of inventory manager of last resort
  • However, the unintended consequence was to underwrite shale activity through a bullish credit market at a time when delayed delivery of the 2011-13 capex boom could lead to record non-OPEC production growth in 2018

And, more from Goldman Sachs on the changing role of OPEC ... from price setter to inventory manager
  • In the New Oil Order, we believe OPEC's role has structurally changed from long-term price setter to inventory manager.
  • In the past, large-scale developments required seven years+ from FID to peak production, giving OPEC long-term control over oil prices.
  • US shale oil currently offers large-scale development opportunities with 6-9 months to peak production. This short-cycle opportunity has structurally changed the cost dynamics, eliminating the need for high cost frontier developments and instigating a competition for capital amongst oil producing countries that is lowering and flattening the cost curve through improved contract terms and taxes.


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