From GS economists on the US economy

Risks to US growth from global threats have become higher than before. But a major global downturn (circa 4% slowdown) would be necessary to send the US into a downturn

  • "the last few years have provided a reminder that the impact of changes in foreign growth on U.S. financial conditions -- especially U.S. equity prices -- can be quite variable and unpredictable"

GS economists base-case probability of a recession over the next year is 14%

  • rises to 20% if global growth slowed 1% more than expected
  • 46% if a 3% deceleration
  • 64% if 4%
  • "Under present circumstances a further slowdown in global growth could meaningfully boost U.S. recession odds, but it would have to be fairly large"


Long story short on this (IMO) is if US - China trade talks agree to something the global economy will bumble along OK for a while yet.