BoA/Merrill Lynch reckon on Greece that its "Time for the adults to speak"
- The Europeans hated the idea of the referendum. They like the result even less. To public opinion in core Europe, already tempted by throwing Greece out of the monetary union, the "big no" may be seen as the last straw
- Offering concessions now would be seen as weakness, handing Tsipras a victory that may resonate throughout the periphery
- Even the German social-democrats are now intent on "out hawking" Schaueble
- Merkel's room for manoeuvre is now extremely tight. Finding a solution that keeps Greece in the monetary union would require the acceptance by the Europeans that more fiscal efforts have to be matched - not "preceded" - by explicit debt relief
- This is, in essence, no different from what the IMF has been arguing for a long time, but one could argue - along the lines of Dominique Strauss-Kahn's proposals - that the Fund itself should offer Greece a delay, a complicated manoeuvre that would entail swift US action
- The "snag" here is that the Troika also needs to trust the Greek government's willingness and capacity to implement said fiscal measures
- For a deal to work, Germany has to acknowledge that it cannot dither on debt relief, and Tsipras must give up his fiery rhetoric, and probably re-jig his coalition to let "pro-programme" parties in. That's a lot to ask in a short time span
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The muddle along continues ... but for how much longer?
