Gundlach predicts second Trump victory, says polls are probably wrong again
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach is bullish on a Trump win. Speaking on a webcast:
- “The polls right now say he isn’t going to win, but they said that four years ago”
- “Mind you, my conviction is way lower than it was four years ago. But back in [that period], when Trump was little more than an asterisk in the betting odds, I predicted he was going to win. This one is much more murky, but in my eyes, it favours a Trump win.”
Gundlach also thinks Republicans will likely keep the Senate regardless of who win
- If Biden indeed wins the election and eventually rolls back or eliminates the corporate tax reduction from 2017's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, U.S. equity valuations would increase sharply, said Gundlach. But the reduction in after-tax earnings would mean that stock prices would not appreciate. Interest rates, volatility and inflation would also rise, said Gundlach.
Dunno about this. I am reminded of the old chief forex dealer story, the one where he told everyone he was limit long USD/DEM (kids, ask your parents what DEM is) despite being limit short. That way if it went up everyone would congratulate him and if it went down he had a record month.