Heads up previews for the Australian jobs report due today - 17 September 2020

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

The Australian August employment data is due at 0130 GMT. 

  • Employment Change: K expected -35K, prior +114.7K

  • Unemployment Rate: % expected 7.7%, prior 7.5%

  • Full Time Employment Change: K prior was +43.5K

  • Part Time Employment Change: K prior was +71.2K

  • Participation Rate: % expected 64.6%, prior was 64.7%

The drop expected for employment is due to the renewed economic shut down in Melbourne, Australia's second-largest city.

ASB note this:
  • We expect Australia to see a 50k loss in employment in August and a 0.2ppt fall in the participation rate. This would see the unemployment rate rise to 7.7% from 7.5%. In Victoria, the lockdown measures enacted over July and August will weigh heavily on labour market outcomes in August.
As do ANZ:
  • The employment gains in Victoria over June and July likely unwound in August as restrictions were tightened. And payroll data suggest that the employment recovery has stalled in other parts of the country, particularly Qld, NSW and the ACT. 
  • Overall, we expect employment to have fallen by 50k and the unemployment rate to have risen to 8.0%.

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