Sifting through all the details it looks fairly simple

  • The BOJ have effectively pegged 10yr JGB yields

  • They're effectively trying to peg the rest of the curve

  • Kuroda's blamed missing the inflation target on everyday cyclical factors (oil goes up, oil goes down, EM economies grow, EM economies shrink)

  • He's had a sly dig at Abe about the sales tax

The main standout is that for all the BOJ have been doing these last few years, the results are more than disappointing, and they think the solution is to do more of the same and go further down the rabbit hole.

When we trade we think about risk/reward. The BOJ are increasing their risk to a magnitude where it won't be worth the minuscule reward they are hoping for. And the word "hope" sums up their current strategy the best. If their shots are falling short of the target, shooting more bullets isn't going to reach it either. They've either got to change the bullets completely, or realise that the target is too high, a fact some other central banks are starting to question too.

Kuroda: A magician or a jester?