Oil's winners and losers

Bloomberg out with an article looking ahead to see who wins and who loses if oil prices keep rising:


  • Oil producers, especially Saudi Arabia and Russia who can pick up Iran's slack
  • Inflation is increased (caveat - pass through from oil to inflation is less than it has been in the past). This article cites some research from the IMF which found that from 1972-1992, a 1% increase in oil prices equated to only 0.07% increase in domestic CPI. And, from 1993-2015, that figure dropped to 0.02% translation into CPI.


  • consumers who pay more due to rising oil prices

Also interesting to note that Iran's sales may remain stable with those who still want to keep the deal open. France, Germany, and Russia all on the wires wanting to keep the deal going.

Bottom line: A rise in oil prices will hurt consumers, restrict growth and won't translate much into bottom line CPI.