But after reading the headline statements from Juncker, Sarkozy, Merkel and Lagarde I get the distinct impression that they believe Greece will vote No in the referendum and will exit the EUR. What does that mean for the EUR? Possibly short-term bearish and risk-off sentiment would increase, but medium term probably good for the EUR, with one less piece of uncertainty. On the other hand, it’s probably bad news for European banks who may end up taking a much shorter haircut!