First quarter (January - March) 2018 economic growth data from Japan ... contraction

GDP (seasonally adjusted) for Q1, preliminary, q/q: -0.2% and a big miss

  • expected 0.0%
  • prior 0.1%, revised very sharply lower from 0.4%

GDP Annualized (seasonally adjusted) for Q1, preliminary y/y: -0.6%, ditto on the big miss

  • expected -0.1%, prior 0.6%, revised from 1.6%

GDP Nominal (seasonally adjusted) for Q1, preliminary q/q: -0.4% ... ditto again

  • expected 0.1%, prior 0.1%, revised from 0.3%

GDP Deflator y/y for Q1, preliminary: 0.5% ....

  • expected 0.3%, prior 0.0%, revised from 0.1%
  • deflator is an inflation indicator

GDP Consumer Spending y/y for Q1, preliminary q/q, 0.0%

  • expected is 0.0%, prior was 0.2%, revised from 0.5%

GDP Business Spending y/y for Q1, -0.1% q/q prelim. ... miss

  • expected 0.4%, prior was 0.6%, revised from 1.0%
  • This fall in business capex is the first in a year and a half

Poor figures indeed from Japan ... worse than expected, accompanied by across the board downward revisions to Q4 2017.

Little response from the yen really, par for the course re Japanese data.

On the face of it (and if the preliminary GDP is not revised when the final comes out) this is bearish for the yen as it argues for ongoing BOJ policy accommodation. Note the deflator, some sign of inflation but still way below target.


For background on this I posted preview here: