I posted yesterday on financing data to come from China:
This is the gist of it:
- December new yuan loans, expected 850bn yuan, prior was 1250bn
- Aggregate financing, expected is 1300bn, prior was 1519bn
- Money supply M0 y/y: expected 3.0%, prior was 2.8%
- Money supply M1 y/y: expected 1.6%, prior was 1.5%
- Money supply M2 y/y: expected 8.1%, prior was 8.0%
This data is a focus, but even more so given yestedays poor export and import (Dec data) results.
Previews are thin on the ground.
Quick comments via Barclays:
- We project that both Dec. aggregate financing and new loans declined CNY1000bn
- We expect Dec. M2 growth to remain subdued at 8.0% y/y
UBS:
- expect new loans to total CNY850 bn. December is a seasonal low point for new loans, however … expect December 2018 new loans to be notably higher than December 2017
- expect new TSF to come to CNY1450 bn While stable compared to the November print, … expectation is on the low side compared to typical new TSF in December
(TSF - total social financing, AKA aggregate financing)
