Negotiations will be the story in July

The $600 weekly US unemployment bonus money runs out at the end of July so that's somewhat of a hard deadline for another aid bill.

Talk has ranged from less than $1 trillion (McConnell) to more than $2 trillion (Navarro). The House has already passed a $3 trillion bill. The size and composition of the bill will go a long way towards sustaining or breaking the level of risk appetite in the market.