The US jobs report is up next
In 17 of the past 21 years, August non-farm payrolls has been below the consensus on the initial reading. Last year, the consensus was 180K and the first reading was 156K, although it was later revised to 221K.
The average miss on the first reading over the past decade is nearly 50K.
The reasons for the consistent misses are unclear. Things like teachers leaving and returning to school should be smoothed out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their seasonal adjustments but it's not an exact science. In addition, the heavy rate of holidays in the month with so many people now doing contract work could mean fewer people respond and somehow that skews the rate lower.
