TOKYO (MNI) – The following are the median forecasts for Japanese
economic data due next week provided by economists surveyed by MNI.
Thursday, Mar. 22, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Wednesday): The Ministry of
Finance releases February trade data. Forecast: A deficit of Y125.0
billion, compared to a Y650.3 billion surplus in February 2011 and a
Y1.477 trillion deficit in January 2012. It would be a fifth straight
monthly shortfall.
Economists expect the trade balance in February to have improved to
a deficit worth Y125.0 billion from a record deficit of Y1.477 trillion
hit in January, which was caused by seasonal factors.
In January, the export slump caused by the global slowdown and the
relatively strong yen was aggravated by the Lunar New Year holidays.
Brighter signs are emerging in the global economy and the yen has
fallen from record highs but economists expect Japanese exports to show
year-on-year drops and oil and gas imports for power generation to
remain high in coming months, thus leading to a trade deficit.
They forecast exports fell 6.5% on year in February after -9.3% in
January and imports rose 8.4%, compared with +9.9% in January.
If the median forecast for the trade deficit is met, the current
account balance for the month, due out on Apr. 9, is expected to show a
surplus, reversing a record deficit of Y437.3 billion marked in January.
skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4838 **
[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]
