By Mark Pender
NEW YORK (MNI) – MNI’s U.S. retail trade index slipped back two
points from the prior period’s record high, to a 64.2 level in the Dec.
18 period that indicates strong but not accelerating year-on-year
growth, according to the results of Market News International’s weekly
survey.
Total sales are at an on-year +5.0% with same-store sales
especially strong at +4.4%. Readings are near records in six years of
data.
On-year sales were extremely strong in last week’s retail sales
report from the government, at an adjusted +6.3% for the ex-auto ex-gas
category.
Despite all the strength, chains have not been raising guidance
which is still pointing to a slight slowing through the holidays.
MNI data, when adjusted, are currently pointing to a half
percentage point dip for the December retail sales print.
Upward revisions to seasonal factors held back what would have been
even stronger adjusted gains in the government’s data for November.
Adjustments for November’s clothing & accessories, an important
component making up 6% of total sales, and sporting goods, a small
component, proved much more severe than the initial adjustments.
Clothing & accessories look to get a give back in December where
the adjustment, at least in the initial set, is the most generous in 18
years of data.
An offset is the toughest adjustment in three years for the key
general merchandise component which makes up 14% of total sales. General
merchandise showed unusual strength in November, up 1.3% in a gain that
further makes the December comparison an uphill battle.
Income guidance is lagging sales guidance, a mismatch that points
to markdowns. Income is an on-year +8% with one third of the sample
posting significant declines.
MNI’s sample in the latest period numbers 165 chains representing
138,100 individual retail locations.
Editor’s Note: MNI compiles its retail trade index based on a
weekly sample of company news and data.
** Market News International New York Newsroom: 212-669-6430 **
[TOPICS: MDURE$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,M$UEQ$,MAUDS$]
