MS' global head of FX strategy sees a weaker dollar down the road
- Thinks that the dollar is near its cycle peak
- US Q1 GDP report was a case of 'buy the rumour, sell the fact'
- Says that the report was by no means convincing
- PCE data later should show more moderation in inflation
- That will put the spotlight on the Fed i.e. will they take steps towards a rate cut?
- There are signs that global economy is recovering
- Chinese economy is improving and will have spillover effects to other economies
- Time lag from Chinese rebound takes about two to six months
Redeker also says that the main theme over the next six months will be the transference of positive Chinese data to other major economies, whereby we will see an improvement in the health of the global economy. Loosely translating, that will bode well for risk assets and will not provide tailwinds for the dollar and yen to appreciate in the coming months.
His point is more or less similar to what Goldman Sachs also argued here. Do you think he's making a fair point? Will the global economy rebound in 2H 2019?
