This a tiny snippet from a Morgan Stanley piece, they see August 2018 for a return toward a lower US dollar
Specifically citing the 'twin deficits':
MS' forecasts ahead are divided into a bear case, a base scenario, and a bull case. Sort of like a range. These out to Q2 of 2019 (i.e 12 months out)
USD/JPY
- Bear 88
- base 96
- bull 101
EUR/USD
- Bear 1.18
- base 1.24
- bull 1.30
GBP/USD
- Bear 1.32
- base 1.39
- bull 1.50
AUD/USD
- Bear .67
- base 0.71
- bull 0.75
--
The USD/JPY forecasts are very bearish indeed.
MS expect specifically on the yen:
- A flatter US yield curve and higher asset volatility in 2H18 reduce incentives for Japanese investors to invest abroad. Repatriation of funds into JPY-denominated assets should keep JPY supported.
