- After last month’s result the NBA was still calling for further rate cuts … they have now abandoned this call and are looking for a rate hike, in late 2015.
- Business conditions … more subdued in April but confidence … up marginally – shrugging off ‘tough budget’ rhetoric. Sales eased slightly, employment slightly better but still soft, profits weaker.
- Conditions remain volatile and mixed across industries: ‘bellwether’ sectors (wholesale, transport) still … soft with near term conditions likely to remain sluggish – forward orders fell sharply
- NAB expects said its indicators, in the near term, are likely to experience continued weakness
- NAB expects forward orders deteriorating and businesses reluctant to restock
- Note : The data for the NAB survey was collected in the fourth week of April. This period misses much of the budget leaks (@DavidScutt)
- From HSBC: Today’s NAB business survey for April continued to show signs of a trend improvement in Australia’s economy. Business confidence rose in the month and while conditions edged slightly lower, they remain consistent with a rising trend. We expect domestic demand to continue to recover, which we see lifting the labour market further. We see the RBA’s easing phase as done and expect that rates may need to rise before year-end.
more to come