ANZ Truckometer is a set of two economic indicators derived using traffic volume data from around New Zealand. ANZ use traffic flows in this indicator as a proxy for economic growth.
Heavy Traffic index -4.8% m/m
- prior -1.2% m/m
Light Traffic Index +2.1%
ANZ are cautious on the data reliability at present:
- there's still plenty of volatility, with the seasonally adjusted traffic data rising very strongly over recent months, due to summer traffic not falling away as quickly as usual - both trucks and cars. Some of this no doubt represents high economic activity, but it's also true that there is plenty of disruption in transport both globally and domestically at present, with goods having to make their way to their destinations by unusual means. This is affecting truck movements, particularly around ports.
- There's plenty of volatility in the car traffic too, especially around Auckland with its recent snap lockdowns, which will also have affected not only the real-time data but also the seasonal adjustment process.
- The traffic data is unlikely to be an accurate barometer for GDP until the noise settles down.
- The New Zealand economy is under pressure, facing supply issues around inputs to production and logistical headaches. But firms and people are getting on with it, as the strong traffic flows attest.
Sensible and reasonable comments indeed.
