This measure of traffic flows is used by ANZ as a proxy for GDP

  • The 'heavy' traffic index is up 6.7% on the month after a fall of 5.3% last month, revised from down 5.7%
  • The light traffic index is up 1% m/m (down 0.6% last month)
  • ANZ say the July result was a 'pothole' that was running "counter to almost all other economic indicators and anecdote" (that was their comment last month on the down result)
  • ANZ add that the truckometer is suggesting 2Q GDP growth is going to be a little weaker than Q1 growth, but other indicators are pointing to a stronger result

More from ANZ (bolding mine):

  • The ANZ Heavy Traffic Index is a timely, concurrent GDP indicator.
  • The Light Traffic Index gives a 6-month lead on the economy
  • The New Zealand economy is putting in a good performance, but it is fair to say growth in recent times has become more reliant on increased borrowing and population growth
  • Our main concerns relate to the arguably precarious situation offshore, with unsustainable borrowing and risk-taking having raised the stakes in global financial markets
  • The New Zealand economy's stellar runs are typically ended by a side-swipe out of an unnoticed side road. Stay alert.