Preview of all the numbers that matter ahead of the September 2015 non-farm payrolls employment report:
The US employment report is due at 8:30 am ET on Friday, October 2, 2015
- Median NFP estimate 201k (197k Private)
- August 173k
- Highest estimate 256k (Paragon)
- Lowest estimate 175k (HFE)
- Average estimate 212k
- Standard deviation 18k
- Unemployment rate exp 5.1% vs 5.1% prior
- Participation rate exp 62.6% unch
- Avg hourly earnings m/m exp 0.2% vs 0.3% prior
- Avg hourly earnings y/y exp 2.4% y/y vs 2.2% prior
- Avg weekly hours exp 34.6 vs 34.6 prior
Here's the August jobs story so far
- ADP 200K vs 186k prior (exp 190K)
- ISM manufacturing employment 50.8 vs 51.2 prior
- ISM non-manufacturing employment (to be released Wed)
- Initial jobless claims 4 wk avg 270.8 vs 275.3k prior (for Aug NFP survey date)
- Consumer confidence jobs hard to get 24.3 vs 21.7 prior
- Conference board help wanted online demand for hiring +138.5K vs +34.2k prior
- Challenger layoffs 58.9K vs 105.7k prior
- July JOLTS 5753k vs 5323k prior
What to watch in nonfarm payrolls
I don't think the headline number matters that much. The jobs report has been so solid for so long that a soft number would be brushed aside quickly after the inevitable kneejerk. The only thing that could really move the needle for the Fed would be a sign of wage inflation.
This has to be one of the most disappointing charts post-crisis charts.
If I could trade only one headline on nonfarm payrolls this month, this would be it. And I'd only trade it if it goes against what the jobs headlines says.
The nonfarm payrolls preview from Goldman Sachs talks about another metric in the report where they might have an edge as well.
