Surplus in the years ahead seen lower, GDP projections lowered

NZD down a little

From the fiscal and economic update (half year):

  • sees 2019/20 OBEGAL surplus NZ$4.113 bln (budget NZ$+5.420 bln)
  • sees 2020/21 OBEGAL surplus NZ$5.084 bln (budget NZ$+5.721 bln)
  • sees 2018/19 net debt 20.9 % of GDP (budget 21.1 pct)
  • 2018/19 cash balance NZ$-4.993 bln (budget -3.875 bln)
  • 2019/20 cash balance NZ$-2.506 bln (budget -1.727 bln)
  • sees 2018/19 GDP +2.9 pct (budget +3.8 pct)
  • targets net debt of 20 pct of GDP by 2022

Summary headlines via Reuters

That is a pretty big chop to GDP estimate since the NZ budget just 6 months ago. Indicators we have been seeing on the NZ economy have shown slowing growth, yes, but wow on a 0.9% cut to GDP forecasts from the government.

Surplus expected to fall also.