Iran nuclear deal

oil bbc report

Oil is quickly down $2 after a report from the BBC that an important announcement is expected on an Iran nuclear deal tomorrow. Russia's envoy to the talks said they had made "great progress" and that "important news will likely come by tomorrow."

WTI was last at $64.40. I've been highlighting this risk for awhile and if you listened to the comments from US officials, it's sounded like a done deal for awhile. Despite that, it's very tough to know what's priced in.

We've had a $2 drop so far but already we're seeing a bounce, so maybe it's mostly priced in.

Another question is how much oil Iran can export and how quickly. They've been preparing for this for awhile so it might be fast. At the same time, there are widespread reports and rumours that Iran has already been covertly exporting oil since the start of the year.

Oil chart