Oil's rally capped by demand
April's downtrend for oil looks set to continue even though we have had a relief rally on improving global sentiment and temporary support from a change of Saudi's energy minister. Yesterday Adam reported that Donald trump fired 'uber-hawk John Bolton as national security adviser' :
Bolton is a notorious hawk, especially in the middle east. No doubt that some of the issues Trump referred to related to taking a more militaristic approach.
Bolton was Pres Trump's third National Security Advisor after Michael Flynn and H. R. McMaster, both were asked to resign. Bolton has served since April 9 2018.
You can see the reaction immediately in oil as it falls on falling chances of bombs falling in Iran.
Furthermore, the IEA lowered its forecast for global oil demand and money managers have cut back their bullish net-longs for Brent and WTI to am 8 week low. See chart below.
This is a tricky outlook for Oil from here and any return to risk off sentiment should see oil selling accelerate as these multiple factors come into play. One to watch as US Oil tests descending trendline and moves away from it.