I don’t remember such a stream of economic growth downgrades since the crisis. For the past month or so, a constant feature on my news tickers has been downgrades, official or private, to emerging market growth forecasts.
Since I sat down today, I’ve seen BNP cut its growth estimate for Turkey and officials in Guinea knock 160 bps of their growth forecast due to financial instability. I couldn’t tell you the first thing about Guinea but I know a trend when I see one. Emerging and frontier markets are struggling, led by China.
The result is likely more US dollar strength. If investors see projects going bad they bring money home or to a safer harbor, which usually means the US dollar. If the locals see sputtering growth causing instability they also prefer dollars.
