Great chart from JPMorgan
This chart shows the huge disconnect between what prediction markets are showing and analysts are saying.
I don't know what goes into JPMorgan's election model but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt because it meshes well with what so many people are seeing in the polls.
There's a major disconnect there and I don't think there are many market participants who have the courage to jump in and try to fill it. I think there's a great trade in buying risk assets on Nov 2, the day before the election but even I don't have the guts to do it with any kind of size or leverage.
The polls to me clearly show a big lead for Biden and no recent momentum. Politically, it's a simple story: Trump hasn't grown any more popular than he was 4 years ago and Biden is less-hated than Hillary.
In the bigger picture, this is a reminder that generals always fight the last war.
