The economic calendar in the US on Thursday is a busy one, with data for:
- Employment - Initial jobless claims for the week ended February 24
- Personal income and spending, January
- Inflation - the PCE deflator for January
- ISM manufacturing for February
- Construction spending for January
Via Nomura:
Personal income and spending
- We expect a steady 0.2% m-o-m increase in personal income in January. For personal spending, we expect a modest 0.2% m-o-m gain after a 0.4% increase in December.
- January retail sales were soft across many categories and pose some downside risk. Core retail sales were flat during the month
PCE deflator
- Based on relevant CPI and PPI data, our forecast for core PCE inflation is a steady 0.2% m-o-m (0.218%) gain. This translates into to 1.5% (1.46%) y-o-y growth, unchanged from the previous month after rounding.
More on the PCE (an inflation indicator)
Barclays:
- On the inflation side of the report, we expect the headline PCE price index to have increased by 0.4% on the month (1.7% y/y) and core PCE to have risen by 0.3% m/m (1.5% y/y).
BMO:
- A 0.3% spike in the core CPI last month could translate into a similar-sized jump in core PCE prices, the most in a year. This would lift the annual rate to 1.6%, still below the Fed's target, but a further step up from 1.3% last summer.
