New Zealand CPI is due at 2145 GMT
The New Zealand dollar will be on the move early in Asia-Pacific trading with the Q3 inflation report due at 2145 GMT.
Eamonn had a preview earlier and Greg looked at the technicals.
The consensus is for a 0.7% q/q rise and a 1.7% y/y rise. Economists at UBS forecast consensus prints, which are both higher than the RBNZ's forecasts for 0.4% q/q and 1.4% y/y but that's mostly due to temporary factors.
"Key elements of our Q3 CPI forecast are: (1) food up 0.7% q/q (adding 0.14%pts) - seasonal lift in fruit & vegetable prices but also higher than normal increase in the restaurant/take-a-way sub-group, perhaps reflecting pass-through of higher minimum wages; (2) housing up 1.1% q/q (adding 0.27%pts) - ongoing rent and home purchase cost increases but also the bulk of annual local authority rate increases (estimated at 4%); (3) transport up 1.0% q/q (adding 0.14%pts) - mostly as a result of an estimated 4% q/q increase in petrol prices; and, (4) other - ongoing falls in communication equipment/services costs, a large (like 10-20%) increase in the cost of letter/parcel post (albeit a small weight) and a seasonal rise in accommodation prices (plus uncertain impact of new methodology)," UBS writes.
With the higher print, they see the RBNZ retreating to the sidelines for at least another year.
"The chances of a near-term OCR cut from the RBNZ look to be receding," they write, citing credit card spending numbers.
