On Friday morning in the US (1330GMT) we'll get the October retail sales report
Retail Sales Advance m/m
- expected is +0.3%, prior was +0.1%
Retail Sales Ex Auto m/m
- expected is +0.4%, -0.3%
Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas m/m
- expected is +0.4%, prior was flat at 0.0%
The bumping up the 'expected' to 0.3% (for the headline result) from the prior of just +0.1% hinges on a couple of factors;
- the details of the report last month were a little stronger (just a little) than the +0.1% suggested,
- the launch of the new iPhone in late September should give a boost to the result this month,
- and (relative) stability on gasoline prices over the survey period.
The retail sales data is going to be a focus for the market. A 'beat' (or even an on expected result) will feed expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate hike and trickle into the USD as a positive. Whether that's a justified interpretation is a fair question given the slide in equities has once again got us thinking the Fed will run scared in December.
On the other hand, a 'miss' will once again raise questions about a postponement of the elusive lift off hike.
FWIW I'm leaning towards the +0.3% or higher result.
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Oh, I've just noticed ... my 'hinges on a couple of factors' is actually three.
You know what they, say ... there are three types of people in the world ... those who can count and those who can't.
