The data is due at 0030 GMT, Australian data for wages in the October - December 2017 quarter

Q4 Wage Price Index

  • expected 0.5% m/m, prior 0.5%
  • expected 2.0% y/y, prior 2.0%

More now, these via:


  • Total hourly wages ex bonuses rose by 0.5% in Q3, below Westpac's and the market's expectation of 0.7%. The result is in line with the persistently low range of 0.4-0.6% despite an above normal increase in the minimum wage of 3.3% effective in Q3. Annual wages growth is still near historic lows, up marginally to 2.0%yr from 1.9%yr.
  • The 2017-18 Fair Work Commission's annual wage review decision saw a 3.3% increase in the national minimum wage and minimum wages across all awards, effective July 1. This compares to the previous year's 2.4% rise, when there was also a lower proportion of workers on award wages.
  • We estimate that the minimum wage rise had a net effect of 0.2ppts to Q3's wage growth. Enterprising bargaining continues to provide lower wage rises than the average of all existing agreements. This will continue to be a drag on the Wage Price Index.


  • We expect modest increase in wages as the impact of ongoing improvement in labor market and the gradual resetting of wage agreements.


For the Australian dollar, a disappointment on this data should be a negative. The RBA wants wages rising faster than they have been, if the data today shows slow growth again it'll push expectations of any rate hikes from the Bank further out (rate hike expectations are very low right now - the Bank s firmly on hold). Conversely, a beat shoud be a psotive inout for the AUD, it'll drag rate hike expectations forward a little (there are other considerations, but at the margin faster wage growth should be AUD positive)


Also due at 0030 from Australia is Q4 Construction Work Done, I'll have more to come on this