CPI out tomorrow at 13:30am
Inflation and unemployment have been the key indicators for the RBA.
Labour data has shown strength recently with additional full time jobs being added to the workforce and the unemployment rate dropping from 5.2% to 5.3%. The present chances of a rate cut in November is now at 18%.
If we get inflation data out tomorrow at 0.4% for the trimmed mean q/q then it will be very likely that the RBA will keep on hold for November. If we get a reading of 0.3% or below then the odds will increase for a coming rate cut. Expect AUD to keep outperforming the NZD (remember the key business confidence data for NZD this week) if the CPI data is as expected or better than expected.
