Here we go with the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes from the December monetary policy meeting
Headlines via Reuters:
- RBA board judged steady policy consistent with inflation, growth goals
- Recent data had increased confidence that unemployment would continue to fall, inflation rise
- Uncertain on how far and when stronger growth would feed through to wages and inflation
- Outlook for household consumption a "significant risk" given slow income growth, high debt
- Risks in household balance sheet had lessened, but still bore careful watching
- Any further rise in A$ would slow expected pick-up in inflation, economy
- Board noted A$ still in range held over past two-and-a-half years
- Wage growth slower than expected in Q3, but appeared to have stabilised
- Leading indicators pointed to continued above-average growth in employment
- Positive outlook for non-mining investment, helped by strength in infrastructure spending
- Board considered scenario where infrastructure spending beat forecasts for next three years
- Saw little risk of "crowding out" by public spending, rather chance of "crowding in"
- Housing markets had generally eased, especially in Sydney
- Discussed global phenomenon of low unemployment and slow wages growth
- RBA board noted not everyone was "benefiting equally" from strength in labour demand
Familiar themes there from the Bank. There does seem to be more confidence in their outlook for wage rises. Conventional economic theory has it that as the labour market tightens wage price pressures should grow. These have been elusive though, and not just in Australia but globally generally. Plenty of PhD fodder in this I suppose (I wouldn't really know though ;-) ).
On this:
- RBA board noted not everyone was "benefiting equally" from strength in labour demand
Well, yeah. The strength in labour demand never benefits everyone equally. Never has. Never will. Maybe the RBA thinks it reasonable to point it out though; I dunno.
After a little wobble the AUD is little changed.
And, that's it from the RBA for a while.. next monetary policy Board meeting is scheduled for February (the 6th if you're counting down).
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