The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia December 2018 meeting
- Board agreed next move in rates more likely to be up than down
- saw no strong case for a near-term change in policy
- steady policy allowed RBA to be a source of stability and confidence
- sluggish household incomes, high debt and falling home prices "posed downside risks"
- had expected Q3 GDP growth to be above 3 pct for the year (vs actual 2.8 pct)
- Expected GDP growth to run above potential this year and next
- Leading indicators pointed to above average jobs growth for next couple of quarters
- Further fall in the unemployment rate likely
- Banks had slowed lending for housing investment and to small business
- There had been a "generalised tightening of credit availability"
- Noted a pick up in business lending by major banks to large businesses
- Trade-weighted A$ remained within range of recent years
- Recent sharp fall in oil prices likely to curb headline inflation globally
- Board noted difficult to gauge underlying growth in Chinese economy
- Growth had slowed in number of economies globally, in part due to trade tensions
quick headlines are via Reuters
Full text here: Minutes of the December 2018 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board
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As usual the RBA highlighting what it sees as positives and negatives:
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- jobs growth, lower unemployment
- business lending growth (to large business)
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- sluggish household incomes
- high debt
- falling home prices
- slower lending to small business
- tightening in credit availability
- slowing global growth
- trade tension
The RBA weighed all those and seem happy to let rate stay where they are , and with no strong case for a near-term change in policy
Ah well, a bunch of PhDs reckon its all good. My editorial comment is not much changed from earlier:
AUD has done little upon the release, barely budged.