–Repeating To Add Data On Long Term Rate Expectations

Report for: September 2012
Source: Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve Note:

Appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is the future path of
policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for
economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her
interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s dual objectives of maximum
employment and stable prices.

Appropriate Timing of Policy Firming

Number of participants who believe policy firming will first
occur in the given year

Year Number of Responses

Sep12 Jun12 Apr12 Jan12
Report Report Report Report

2012 1 3 3 3
2013 3 3 3 3
2014 2 7 7 5
2015 12 6 4 4
2016 1 0 0 2

—————————————————–

Appropriate Pace of Monetary Firming

Target Federal Funds Rate at Year-End (in pct)

Number of Reponses
End of Year 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013

Release Date: Sep12 Jun12 Apr12 Sep12 Jun12 Apr12

Average FFR * 0.26 0.30 0.37 0.38 0.51 0.60

0.25 18 16 14 15 13 11
0.50 1 2 1 2 1 0
0.75 0 1 0 1 1 1
1.00 0 0 1 0 1 2
1.25 0 0 1 0 2 1
1.50 0 0 0 0 0 0
1.75 0 0 0 1 1 2
2.00 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.25 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.50 0 0 0 0 0 0
2.75 0 0 0 0 0 0
3.00 0 0 0 0 0 0
3.25 0 0 0 0 0 0
3.50 0 0 0 0 0 0
3.75 0 0 0 0 0 0
4.00 0 0 0 0 0 0
4.25 0 0 0 0 0 0
4.50 0 0 0 0 0 0
4.75 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.00 0 0 0 0 0 0

End of Year 2014 2014 2014 2015

Release Date: Sep12 Jun12 Apr12 Sep12

Average FFR * 0.80 1.11 1.32 1.00

0.25 13 6 4 1
0.50 0 4 3 2
0.75 0 1 0 3
1.00 0 0 2 4
1.25 0 0 0 0
1.50 2 2 1 3
1.75 2 2 0 0
2.00 0 1 2 0
2.25 0 0 1 0
2.50 1 1 3 2
2.75 0 1 1 0
3.00 1 1 0 0
3.25 0 0 0 0
3.50 0 0 0 1
3.75 0 0 0 1
4.00 0 0 0 1
4.25 0 0 0 0
4.50 0 0 0 1
4.75 0 0 0 0
5.00 0 0 0 0

Long Run Long Run Long Run

Sep12 Jun12 Apr12

Average FFR * 4.00 4.11 4.19

0.25 0 0 0
0.50 0 0 0
0.75 0 0 0
1.00 0 0 0
1.25 0 0 0
1.50 0 0 0
1.75 0 0 0
2.00 0 0 0
2.25 0 0 0
2.50 0 0 0
2.75 0 0 0
3.00 1 1 0
3.25 0 0 0
3.50 1 1 1
3.75 2 1 1
4.00 6 6 6
4.25 5 5 2
4.50 4 5 7
4.75 0 0 0
5.00 0 0 0

Note: All reponses rounded to nearest 1/4 pecent except all values
below 37.5 basis points are rounded to 0.25%

* MNI Calculation Based On Submitted Ranges

** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 **

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,MMUFE$,MGU$$$,MFU$$$]