Richmond Fed manufacturing index for September 2020
- Prior report came in at 9. That was much lower than the 25 estimate at the time.
- Manufacturing index comes in weaker than expected at -3 versus 12 estimate.
- Shipments -1 versus six last month.
- New orders -19 versus five last month.
- Number of employees 20 versus 18 last month .
- Wages 41 versus 50 last month.
- Average workweek three versus 11 last month.
- Availability of skills needed -23 versus -36 last month .
- Prices paid 14.01 versus 11.05 last month .
- Prices received 9.13 versus 9.25 last month
- Backlog of orders 12 versus nine last month.
- Capacity utilization -5 versus six last month.
- Vendor lead times 59 versus 61 last month.
- Local business conditions -8 versus -12 last month.
- Capital expenditures 10 versus 16 last month
- Finished goods inventories -14 versus -10 last month
- Raw materials inventories -19 versus -14 last month.
- Equipment and software spending 22 versus 16 last month.
- Services expenditures six versus three last month.
Other regional indices have so far come in a little better than expected for September. This report is not consistent with those readings.
- Empire manufacturing index 34.3 versus 18.0 estimate
- Philadelphia Fed manufacturing business outlook survey rose to 30.7 in September vs 18.8 estimate.
Highlights:
- The indexes for shipments and new orders fell below 0 for the first time since May 2020, but the third component index-employment- remained positive.
- Manufacturers continued to see low inventories and lengthening lead times and backlogs of orders
- Firms reported weakening local business conditions, but they were optimistic that conditions would improve in the next six months.
- Finding workers with the necessary skills remained a challenge
- The average growth rate of prices paid by survey respondents increased in September, while that of prices received declined.
- Participants expected growth of both prices paid and prices received to slow in the next year
Below is a look at the expectations indices for the major component sectors
Overall, the report is a disappointment with the index moving back into the negative
