September 2020 US manufacturing survey from ISM
- Prior was 56.0
Details:
- New orders 60.2 vs 67.6 prior
- Prices paid 62.8 vs 59.5 prior -- highest since Oct 2018
- Employment 49.6 vs 46.4 prior
- Inventory 47.1 vs 44.0 prior
- Production 61.0 vs 63.3 prior
- Backlog of orders 55.2 vs 54.6 prior
- Supplier deliveries 59.0 vs 58.2 prior
- Customer inventories 37.9 vs 38.1 prior
- New export orders 54.3 vs 53.3 prior
- Imports 54.0 vs 55.6 prior
- Full report
Customer inventories are at the lows since 2010 and that's usually a good sign for future production but the pandemic could be skewing it. It could also represent pessimism from customers, or at least caution.
Comments in the report are overwhelmingly upbeat:
- "Still struggling with long lead times for components coming from China [contract manufacturers]." (Computer & Electronic Products)
- "Volume remains lower than one year ago but has steadily improved over the past two periods." (Chemical Products)
- "Business is booming, and the supply chain has been caught off guard. We are working closely with our suppliers to ensure supply and try to control costs. The resin industry, along with plastics, is driving cost increases and scarce availability." (Transportation Equipment)
- "Our business has not begun to recover." (Petroleum & Coal Products)
- "Overall business conditions are improving, but not at the rates we saw them decline." (Fabricated Metal Products)
- "Our customer order intake is increasing significantly for deliveries in the first half of 2021. Outlook is generally positive." (Machinery)
- "Retail sales remain strong, but food service is still down about 15 percent year-over-year. All of our factories are still struggling with manning shifts due to positive COVID-19 cases and/or quarantine because employees came in contact with someone who contracted the virus." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- "Demand remains high, strong finish to 2020 projected, with an even stronger 2021 fiscal year. Prices have increased in certain categories, but no major price increases of our own have been implemented yet. We are seeing an uptick in reshoring opportunities in the third quarter across various industries and products." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
- "We are seeing a marked increase in international demand in Q4 compared to Q2 and Q3. Still not at historical levels; however, a positive outlook." (Paper Products)
- "Raw material shortages, especially of hardwood logs, are starting to impact overall supply. Domestic market demand is fragmented but remains sound. Export demand, especially to China, is robust." (Wood Products)
- "Business has continued to be strong, with September following August. October is also shaping up to be a good sales month as well." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
