September US CPI highlights

  • Prior was 1.9% y/y
  • Ex-food and energy 1.7% vs 1.8% exp
  • Prior ex-food and energy +1.7%
  • Real avg weekly earnings +0.6% y/y vs +1.0% prior

Month-over-month data:

  • CPI 0.5% vs +0.6% exp
  • Prior +0.4%
  • Ex food and energy 0.1% vs +0.2% exp
  • Prior ex food and energy +0.2%

Weak numbers, right across the board. This is a worrisome development for the Fed. Weekly earnings have fallen to +0.6% from +1.0% from +1.1%. That's not moving in the right direction. The good detail below the headlines was that average weekly earnings among private workers was -0.1% compared to -0.3% expected.

On inflation, the numbers are disappointing.

The Labor Debt said Hurricane Irma had a "small impact" on data collection.

The US dollar is down almost 50 pips across the board.