Norges Bank in Norway and Sveriges Riksbank (Riksbanken) in Sweden meet 13 December 2018
For those trading NOK and SEK …. quickie previews (these via Barclays):
We expect Norges Bank (Thursday) to keep policy unchanged at 0.75%, consistent with market expectations.
- Activity data have been somewhat softer than expected but Norges Bank's forward guidance will likely remain consistent with two hikes next year, in line with our projections. Given market expectations of just one hike, we think this may be seen as a hawkish signal.
- Norges Bank will likely take some comfort from healthy, forward-looking growth expectations seen from its Q4 regional network survey, although the full drop in oil prices is unlikely to have been reflected fully
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My bad, Sweden's central bank meet next week … file away until then
in Sweden, ECB communication will be important to gauge the timing of the Riksbank's rate hike
- The visible slowdown in EA economic data is a risk to our December call for a 25bp hike, but we think a somewhat less dovish ECB communiqué this week would embolden the Riksbank to deliver a hike.
- In any case, however, we expect the eventual Riksbank hike (next week or in February) to be dovish and non-committal, instead of the start of a full-fledged hiking cycle leading eventually to a grind higher in EURSEK.
