The S&P 500 closed up 6 points to an all-time record 1992.38.

Since the bottom on August 7, the index is up 4.6%. Here’s what I wrote that day.

The market is conditioned to fear Fed hikes but I think that the top of the Fed’s cycle won’t be at the 3-4% range the market is expecting and closer to 1-2% and ultimately that will keep stocks moving higher.

That’s the big picture but in the short term there is also room for optimism and it comes from the technicals. The market is attempting to halt the decline at the confluence of the 100-day moving average and the 61.8% retracement of the May-July rally.

BTFD … forever.

SP 500 daily

S&P 500 daily