US State Department spokesman Ned Price with a comment on the deal

US State Department spokesman Ned Price with a comment on the deal

This deal is a big headline risk for oil. So far Iran has been talking a big game but given that the US is at the table, they must think a deal is possible.

The leak from Iran this week continues to resonate, with the idea that Russia doesn't want a deal percolating.

Guessing at geopolitics is a fool's errand but I wouldn't want to be long oil on the day a deal is announced. Still, those barrels have been coming back this year already so there's an opportunity to buy a severe dip.

WTI is back above $65 and up nearly 2% today. USD/CAD is also back to the lows of the day, down 30 pips to a fresh 3-year high.