+90% probability of hitting area around West Palm Beach
Dorian has been upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane by the National Hurricane Center as winds reach 115 mph. That now qualifies it as a major hurricane.
Seven major hurricanes have hit Florida since 1996 including Ivan, Wilma and last year's Michael which made landfall as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds.
The NHC now estimates that the probability of tropical storm force winds hitting from Miami to Vero Beach is now a near certainty, with West Palm Beach currently in the center of the path.
That said, it's still early and the potential path is still wide.
Expect landfall on Monday or Tuesday.