In this snippet from TD's early preview of the US jobs report due July 2 analysts say to look for another strong result.

Analysts have not yet put a number on their headline forecast but say they expect a strong report like that in May:


  • Some acceleration in the private sector is suggested by the Homebase data, while government payrolls probably benefited from fewer than usual end-of-school-year layoffs.
  • Our forecast implies a still-sizable 6.8mn net decline in payrolls from the pre-COVID level.
  • We will review our ISM forecast for June after more regional surveys are released, but the mixed data released thus far suggest little change relative to May. At 61.2, the May reading was consistent with strong growth, although the index was as high as 64.7 in March. The boosts to manufacturing growth from "reopening" and fiscal stimulus have probably peaked.