We had the warning signs from the manufacturing data last month and the Empire state data has given us a look into October. That’s a hefty collapse in the numbers but it does tend to tail off late in the year as the chart on the data post shows. Last month the forward looking picture was looking down and that trend has continued, although there are some chinks of light in the numbers.
6 month forward looking indicators are as follows;
- New orders 42.34 vs 45.56
- Employment 12.50 vs 14.13 prior
- Average work week -2.27 vs +5.43 prior
The semi good news from the report is that investment expectations rose. Capex was up to 21.59 from 13.04 while tech spending jumped to 15.9 vs 9.78 prior. Unfortunately thinking and doing are worlds apart in business and if the slump in manufacturing gathers real pace then those cheque books and expectations are going to stay firmly in the draw.
There’s a lot of fear starting to come into the market and it’s likely to be a bit more extreme than the situation warrants right now.
The full Empire report can be found here
