The US stocks fell into the close and this will leave a sour taste in the mouths of global markets as the new trading day begins.

The Dow fell 107 points and will close below the 100 day MA at the 17098.

The S&P is down 16.87 points and will close below it’s 100 day MA at the 1988 level.

The Nasdaq is down 57 points and will close above the 100 day MA at 4539.19. So their is one ray of hope.

In the new trading day Japan trade data will be released tonight, UK employment data followed by BOE meeting minutes. In the NY morning US CPI (estimate -0.1% and 1.4% YoY). Later in the afternoon the “Main Event” with the Fed decision, the central tendencies, the dot graph.

Until that moment, get ready to hear the words “I think…” a lot from a lot of people over the next 22 hours.

“I think the Fed will say this?”

“I think the dollar will do this?”

“I think stocks will do this and oil will do that?”

“I think bonds will do this?”

“I think the the USDRUB will fall out of bed?” “I think it will rally up?”

“I think capital controls will be put in place?”

“I think oil price decline is a bad thing? I think it is a good thing.”

“I think Putin will do this”

What I think is this….

The Risk-O-Meter is at a maximum, red hot level..


It is not the kind of risk that leads to rewards. It is the kind of risk that people take when they are really drunk in a bar, and they pick a fight.

Be careful… one misstep and it can be over in a second….