Credit Suisse have published their list of the 10 trades for the coming year.
Not only that, they've included their rationale AND the primary risks of each trade to keep an eye on.
Agree or disagree, its useful work and much appreciated. Its shared via eFX.
Speaking of agree or disagree ... what are the thoughts of ForexLive traders? Comments welcome, as always
1. Buy USD versus EUR and CHF
Rationale: We expect the impact of monetary policy divergence between the Fed and ECB to increase as 2016 starts. The SNB is likely to remain committed to preventing Swiss franc strength versus the euro even as EURUSD declines.
Trades: Sell EURUSD. Our first target is 1.00. Our technical analysts advocate taking 50% of the risk there, targeting 0.85 on the remainder.
Buy USDCHF six-month 1.08 digital call for maximum potential gain of 6 times the premium paid.
Primary Risk: The impact of negative rates and QE could be dominated by a negative US growth shock. The risk to a digital call is limited to the premium paid.
2. Go long European equities
Rationale: Given our view that the Fed will tighten, the euro depreciate toward parity, and the ECB extend its QE program, we expect that a catch-up in European corporate earnings will allow European equities to outperform US equities.
Trade: We advocate longs in European equities. Our technical analysts' target for the Euro Stoxx 600 is 445, a 17% gain from current levels.
Primary Risk: European equities are potentially vulnerable to weaker growth, no new ECB stimulus, or a resurgence of euro political risk.
3. Sell AUDUSD again
Rationale: The policy divergence stretches well beyond Europe. Our structural expectations for slowing in China and ongoing weakness in Australia's core commodities leave us bearish on the Aussie dollar.
Trade: Buy six-month AUDUSD 0.70 put RKO 0.65. Maximum payout is 14 times the premium paid.
Primary Risk: A rebound in commodities markets would be likely to cause the trade to expire worthless. An accelerated decline in the Aussie dollar could trigger the lower barrier and also leave the structure worthless. The risk to a put RKO is limited to the premium paid.
4. Buy 2-year Germany
Rationale: We expect the ECB to cut the deposit rate in December. This should lead to further rate cuts being priced into the curve.
Trade: Buy 2-year Germany (Schatz future) at -35bp, target -55bp, stop 25bp.
Primary Risk: A hawkish ECB meeting could put a floor under the deposit rate at -20bp.
5. Sell 5-year US Treasuries.
Rationale: Our technical analysts see scope for a range break in US 5-year yields. Trade: Sell 5-year US Treasuries on a break above 1.88%, for 2.33/2.43%.
Primary Risk: Negative carry could generate losses on the position while the Fed is ultra-slow.
6. Overweight European versus US credit
Rationale: Relative monetary policy and the much-lagged stage of the European corporate profit cycle make European credit attractive relative to the US, in our view.
The Trade: We prefer expressing the view in iTraxx1 Main versus IG. Primary Risk: A dovish shift in Fed policy would be likely to cause IG to outperform.
7. Overweight local-currency EM bonds
Rationale: Selected EM markets offer value in a rising US yield environment.
Trade: Go long an equal-weighted basket of EM local currency 5-year bonds (funded in local currency) in India, Russia, and Mexico against paying the same gross dollar value in US 5-year rates, targeting a 100 bp tightening of the EM-US 5-year spread.
Primary Risk: A crisis of confidence could occur in EM.
8. Overweight credit-oriented SP versus Agency MBS
Rationale: We see the pick-up in volatility related to a potential Fed hiking cycle as structurally negative for Agency. Parts of the non-Agency MBS and CMBS markets appear relatively cheap as they have lagged the recent tightening of macro-markets.
Trade: Within RMBS, we favor higher-carry assets. For CMBS, the middle part of the new issue curve is our preferred sector.
Primary Risk: A spike in global macro-volatility could occur.
9. Add a USD rates bear flattener
Rationale: We think that the market is under-pricing the medium-term potential for Fed hikes.
Trade: We recommend a six-month forward 5s30s conditional bear flattener at 86bp and target 20bp of flattening.
Primary Risk: A dovish Fed with rising growth and inflation expectations could cause the curve to bear-steepen.
10.Protect against risk of dollar surge
Rationale: Higher US rates may trigger a new surge in the dollar, dominating other capital flows. EURMXN downside exposure has cheapened EURUSD/USDMXN implied correlation.
Trade: Buy six-month EURUSD 1.02 put, USDMXN 17.15 call dual-digital. The maximum gain on the structure is 6 times the premium paid.
Primary Risk: The dollar could disappoint. The potential losses are limited to the premium paid.